The fate of Serbian Krajina and the future of Artsakh
As we all know, History is cyclical, and I would like to emphasize in this article the regularities of the history of two peoples, whose fate was, by the will of cowardly politicians, placed in the hands of peacekeepers and international organizations. Both peoples were victims of behind-the-scenes politics. Not a single union state recognized either Krajina or Artsakh. In the diplomatic field, the unrecognized countries were considered the territory of Croatia and Azerbaijan. I would like to add that the author has her own views on the Serbo-Croatian conflict, as well as the fall of the Serbian Krajina. The author does not claim to be the ultimate truth and will be grateful for any objective comments.
The article indicates the relationship between the events in Krajina and Artsakh. After careful analysis, I realized what scenario Artsakh is going on. And what will happen to the Artsakh Republic if urgent action is not taken to save the Motherland.
The role of international organizations and the consequences
The Republic of Serbian Krajina is a state entity that existed in 1991-1995 on the territory of modern Croatia. It included a number of areas where Serbs constituted an overwhelming majority or a significant proportion of the population. It was created as a response of Croatian Serbs to Croatian nationalism and expressed their unwillingness to live in an independent Croatia, where they were destined for the role of second-class people. The Serbian Krajina had its own government, army, currency, television, etc. For several years of existence, the Krajina Serbs managed to achieve certain successes in state building. But in August 1995, their state collapsed in less than a week.
The first reason was that the international peacekeepers stationed in Krajina were not fulfilling their main task. The civilian population remained under the yoke of Croatian attacks and provocations. Peacemakers do not like to be drawn into the conflict between the two Balkan nations, especially die. Accordingly, the UN Security Council and the states that sent peacekeepers, which took on certain obligations to protect the Krajina, were not fulfilled at all. In 1991 there were fierce battles for the Serbian Krajina. Slobodan Milosevic, then President of Serbia, provided the main political and moral support to the Krajina Serbs. Despite this, at the end of the same year, Milosevic supported the Vance plan, which included the deployment of peacekeepers, the disarmament of the Krajina formations and the further settlement of the conflict through negotiations. Despite all the disastrousness of this plan for Krajina, as a result of pressure, Vance’s plan nevertheless entered into force. How could a politician who provided unconditional support to the Croatian Serbs betray the people who believed him so? It’s simple, leaving Krajina to the Croats, Milosevic received the cancelation of the US and European sanctions.
It’s simple, leaving Krajina to the Croats, Milosevic received the cancelation of the US and European sanctions.
As subsequent events showed, the Serbs’ fears were justified. For the Croats, the ceasefire and the presence of peacekeepers did not become obstacles to a number of local offensives. In turn, the peacekeepers did not interfere with the Croatian attacks, and in Krajina they quickly realized that they could not wait for the promised help. There was not enough weapons to cover the entire front line. The weapons that were stored in the warehouses were under the supervision of the peacekeepers.
The army numbered just over 60,000 soldiers and officers. That is, almost every seventh inhabitant of Krajina was involved in the army. And this turned the unrecognized country into an all-out militia, where practically the entire combat-ready male population served. In such conditions, developing the economy was an extremely difficult task. It should also be noted that even 60,000 soldiers and officers were not enough to build a complete line of defense. For a number of brigades, the length of the positions was too great, and instead of a solid line of trenches, the positions were strong points that were tens, or even hundreds of meters apart, from each other, the space between which was only mined. In some units, the defenses were so extended that during attacks, entire enemy companies passed into the spaces between the positions.
In the early morning of August 4, 1995, the Croats launched an offensive along the entire front line, the operation was called “storm”. To cause panic in the rear, artillery massively attacked populated areas, attacking purely civilian targets. According to various estimates, only on the city of Knin fell from three to five thousand shells and missiles. In general, the beginning of the fighting did not bode well for disaster. In a number of places, the units of the Serbian Krajina retreated to reserve positions, and somewhere they managed to repel enemy attacks.
The main headquarters of the Krajina began to receive reports that a group of soldiers and militiamen on Mount Dinara retreated under the onslaught of two enemy guards brigades and that the way to the capital of the Serbian Krajina, Knin, was open. The fall of positions on the side of the mountain was a disaster for the Krajina Serbs. The Croats, having occupied a strategically important height, examined Knin with binoculars.
The fall of positions on the side of the mountain was a disaster for the Krajina Serbs.
Thus, in less than a week, Krajina ceased to exist. Almost 2,000 Serbs fell victim to the operation, most of them civilians. 230,000 people became refugees. The share of Serbs in Croatia decreased from 12.16% in 1991 to 4.54% in 2001. The Croatian authorities gleefully announced a “solution to the Serbian question in Croatia”.
The Republic of Armenia is now following exactly the same scenario with regard to Artsakh.
After a hard 44-day war and the signing of a trilateral ceasefire agreement on November 9, 2021, Armenians around the world are faced with a new reality. The future of the Armenians of Artsakh found itself under an existential threat overnight. The loss of the Fortress City of Shushi turned the tide of the war, today the enemy not only looks through binoculars at the capital of Artsakh, Stepanakert, but also has important strategic positions.
Armenia was the guarantor of the security of the small, unrecognized, but undoubtedly proud Republic of Artsakh. The words of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that “Artsakh is Armenia and the point” strongly differed from his position in the negotiation process on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Subsequently, Lavrov’s plan was implemented, which assumed the surrender of 7 regions to Azerbaijan, which in turn meant a complete disaster for the future of Armenia and Artsakh. The fate of the Artsakh Armenians became a subject of political bargaining. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation has stepped onto the holy ground, which does not take any measures to prevent local skirmishes among two hostile peoples. The Armenian armed forces pledged to leave Artsakh. In the near future, a large-scale war will begin again along the entire line of contact, fast and brutal with a tragic end. After all, Azerbaijan continues to prepare for a new war and is negotiating the purchase of offensive weapons from Israel in the amount of $ 2 billion. Baku is preparing for war, and Yerevan for peace. In the event of an escalation of the conflict, the outcome of the war is obvious.
The facts are on the face, on November 9, Armenia, represented by Pashinyan, left the fate of the Artsakh Armenians at the mercy of the peacekeepers of Russia. Unfortunately, the main focus lied on closing of the Karabakh issue – regardless the outcome.